Endorsement roundup

I've always had a soft spot for Ron Reagan, Jr. ever since he danced with the Joffrey Ballet. Now he lends the Reagan name to his endorsement for Barack Obama.

On the other side, John McCain picked up the ALL important endorsement of Dick Cheney. Oh, thankyouthankyouthankyouthankyou THANK YOU..... At a rally in Pueblo, Obama said, "I'd like to congratulate Sen. McCain on this endorsement, because he really earned it. That endorsement didn't come easy," he said. "George Bush may be in an undisclosed location now, but Dick Cheney's out there on the campaign trail because he'd be delighted to pass the baton to John McCain." Obama's ad people are ASTONISHING. They had an ad out in hour.

McCain did his own version of the "infomercial" with Tina Fey on Saturday Night Live, making his pitch to America from the QVC channel. McCain starred in the opening segment (with a surprise cameo from Cindy) and also popped into the Weekend Update. Once again, if THIS had been the John McCain Obama was running against, we'd have a much tighter race. So sad.

Also, if you actually stayed up to watch the very not-funny rest of the show, you might have noticed that McCain was still there at the end of the show, hanging out with the cast. Dude. It's 54 hours until polls start opening. You got your media exposure. Hahahah, you were funny. Now, don't you have SOMETHING BETTER TO DO THAN HANG OUT AT SNL?
<== To the left, a photo of the McCain headquarters in Florida's Walton County -- precisely 72 hours before the poll close. To quote Jon Stewart, "You don't even want this, do you?"

By the way, in a brief historical note, Fontaine Maverick, the descendent of the REAL Maverick (for whom the term is named) has done this fab interview explaining why McCain is no maverick. And she wants her name back.

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The Sequels: Return of the Ugly, Son of Ugly, Ugly versus Mothra....

Last blast of the ugly. "John McCain faces a daunting challenge, the GOP and the McCain campaign have ramped up their negative attacks on Barack Obama. Just to start, McCain attacked Obama's patriotism and Republicans made much hay out of a video that purportedly shows Obama attending a party where Palestinian, and Columbia University Professor, Rashid Khalidi was also a guest."

HuffPo rounds up the last minute desperation TACTICS. Still no strategy, just throw the crap out there and see what sticks to the wall. Obama is a Socialist, Obama is an extremist who hangs out with the PLO sympathizers, Obama is soft on crime, Obama's a "chicken shit," Obama's policies will lead to a second holocaust, Obama's not a US citizen. (???) Jesus, Mary, Joseph, Johnny Mac, could you be any MORE desperate and obvious?

And from overseas comes this ridiculous item: "The Republicans have made a last-minute attempt to prevent Barack Obama's ascent to the White House by trying to recruit an Oxford academic to 'prove' that his autobiography was ghostwritten by a former terrorist. Dr Peter Millican, a philosophy don at Hertford College, Oxford, has devised a computer software program that can detect when works are by the same author by comparing favourite words and phrases. He was contacted last weekend and offered $10,000 (£6,200) to assess alleged similarities between Obama's bestseller, Dreams from My Father, and Fugitive Days, a memoir by William Ayers."

Meanwhile, Palin continues to help the campaign effort in her own inimitable way: "Sarah Palin has unwittingly taken a prank call from a Canadian comedian posing as French President Nicolas Sarkozy and told him she may make a good president in eight years. The Republican vice presidential nominee discussed politics, the perils of hunting with Vice President Dick Cheney, and Sarkozy's 'beautiful wife,' in the telephone call released Saturday. When the caller told Palin she would make a good president, she laughed and replied: 'Maybe in eight years.'"

Oh, and, can someone PLEASE explain to Sarah Palin that we are NOT at war with Iran. Help me out here, folks. What's your opinion? If I smack my head long enough on the table, will I be able to forget that Sarah Palin even exists?

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Song and Dance Sampler

I think the reality is that our side is just more talented.

• Thanks to Sandy for the utterly hilarious Hockey Moms for Obama. ("Don't Speak for Me Sarah Palin," sung to the tune of "Don't Cry for M Argentina")
• Thanks, Milena, for the great Obama/McCain Dance Off. Because I am, you know, a dance writer. Hah.
• Oh, and in case you missed it, Barack dancing (for real) on Ellen Degeneres' show. And Michelle -- perhaps the better dancer?
  
• And thanks to Dana for this video of "Oy McCainia..."
• This guy was NPR on Saturday with renditions of hilarous old campaign songs.
• In a different vein, Jay-Z was in Richmond over the weekend, exhorting people to get out and vote. "Barack Obama's running so we all can fly."

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Schlemiel, Schlemazel

As I've often noted in these rants, the McCain camp just can't seem to catch a break. And Sarah Palin-- yes she's a conniving opportunist, but Max Gross also makes the case for poor Sarah as the ultimate schlemiel. In case you've forgotten your Yiddish, a schlemiel (made famous in the Laverne and Shirley song, "Schlemiel, schlemazel, Hausenfeffer Incorporated...") is that poor idiot who keeps on screwing things up because she's too dumb not to trip over her own feet. BTW, a schlemazel is the hapless victim who just never seems to have any luck, period.

In a reality check moment, CONSERVATIVE columnist George Will goes after the McCain campaign for its carelessness. Darn. I'm agreeing with George Will again. I hate when that happens. "Palin may be an inveterate simplifier; McCain has a history of reducing controversies to cartoons. A Republican financial expert recalls attending a dinner with McCain for the purpose of discussing with him domestic and international financial complexities that clearly did not fascinate the senator. As the dinner ended, McCain's question for his briefer was: 'So, who is the villain?'"

McCain camp "base member" Robert Draper--interviewed, oddly enough, in Women's Wear Daily--reveals that John McCain doesn't like blogging. Oh, really? I'm devastated. "They've come to be rather disdainful of the hyper-blogging that takes place on the press bus, and they think it has increased this mind-set of 'gotcha' journalism, where every time John McCain would say something, instead of asking a follow-up question, people would go scurry off to their laptops and post to their blogs. And the McCain campaign believes that's not what journalism ought to be....In being there, you can develop relationships with people on the campaign. You can't do that by sitting on your butt at home watching YouTube. If you're out there watching them do their thing, then go out in the evening and have a beer with them and talk to them about what's just transpired, then you set yourself up for what could be a series of interesting interviews.…[And] that sort of proximity isn't earned overnight." Yeah. Color me crazy, but what I get from this is that McCain doesn't like people writing about him whom he can't control. But then, I'm just another "blogger."

And in case you haven't seen it, check out Helen Philpot's fantastic blog. Andrew Sullivan at the Daily Dish pointed to Margaret and Helen, two 80-plus women who started a blog to keep in touch. Helen, who's new to blogging but says she gotten help from the grandkids, apparently received quite a bit of attention for calling Sarah Palin a "bitch." Her reply is fabulous. "I'm old enough to remember the Republican party of Barry Goldwater - when the party stood for fiscal responsibility, small government and personal freedoms. I remember when I could talk with friends about politics and just agree to disagree. And then religious nut cases decided that if you didn't agree with them you were immoral. So they went and elected George Bush President so he could take the Republican Party from being a party full of respectable people to a party filled with asses, jackasses and yes - bitches like Sarah Palin."

If you want a truly side-splitting moment, read her original post that started the Sarah Palin flap on her blog. "When exactly do we all get to call 'bullshit'?"

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McCain Campaign Progress Report

Denial (check!) ==> Anger (check-check!) ==> Bargaining (check!) ==> Depression (check!)

Next up ACCEPTANCE. Acceptance that you have royally screwed up your election campaign and that Barack Obama will win, that is. Just to be clear.

HuffPo reports on more infighting at the McCain Palin camp. What else is new? "The McCain campaign continues to snipe at each other over the handling, and subsequent effect, of Sarah Palin on the campaign trail. According Nicole Wallace, a senior McCain aide who is one of Palin's handlers and helped to orchestrate her initial rollout, there is an 'organized campaign to lay blame' for things at her feet. Robert Draper, however, offers a defense of Wallace, saying she's kept quiet about things that a couple of McCain higher-ups have leaked to him, and that Wallace was in a very unenviable position." Yeah, well, she's been in an unenviable position since he joined the McCain campaign.

The Palin Pity Party: "It's a grim binary choice, but apparently it came down to whether to make Palin look like a scripted robot or an unscripted ignoramus. I was told that Palin chafed at being defined by her discomfiting performances in the Couric, Charlie Gibson, and Sean Hannity interviews. She wanted to get back out there and do more. Well, if you're Eskew and Wallace, what do you say to that? Your responsibility isn't the care and feeding of Sarah Palin's ego; it's the furtherance of John McCain's quest for the presidency."

In case you're not irritated enough by Palin's "Wink" Obama's latest ad reminds you of how annoying it is.

And start the GOP Pity Party: After Ted Stevens' um... awkward felony conviction, the Alaska GOP grits its teeth and backs...Ted's...re-election..."Under that chain of events, a special election would be held later to replace Mr. Stevens, giving the party the chance to find a new candidate and keep the seat out of Democratic hands. 'That's the reality,' said McHugh Pierre, a party spokesman. 'Unfortunately, the situation's the situation.'" 'Kay...ALASKA! ARE YOU LISTENING? Hello? Reclaim some shred of your dignity!!! Vote Begich. Jeez, Louise, people.

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Delusions of Grandeur Edition

"Some are able and humane men and some are low-grade individuals with the morals of a goat, the artistic integrity of a slot machine, and the manners of a floorwalker with delusions of grandeur."

--Raymond Chandler

Daily Shot of Schadenfreude

Yes, it's become a daily shot. I'm addicted to it. Like caffeine. If I don't get my daily dose of Republican gaffes I feel sluggish...sleepy, like I just can't get my day going.

Let's start at Politico: "Beleaguered congressional Republicans woke up Tuesday morning thinking they'd gained traction with their focus on offshore oil drilling and hoping that they could pin the "culture of corruption" on Democrats. By lunchtime, the longest-serving Republican senator in history had been indicted on charges that he hid $250,000 in gifts from an oil company looking for favors. Can it get any worse for the GOP?

Ted Stevens found guilty on all counts. After 40 years in the Senate, the most senior Republican is found guilty of not declaring gift on his Senate financial disclosure forms.Making false statements on his Senate finance disclosure forms about gifts he's received from 2001-2006 including $250,000 gifts of home renovations. This, folks, was a "speedy" trial, and even so, it was a circus, with jury drama, and hijinx -- one of the jurors even noticed that the prosecutors had made an error in the indictment which no one had caught-- before the final unanimous verdict came down this morning here in lovely San Francisco.

Oh, I can't resist. In honor of Sen Ted Stevens' conviction, I give you a reprise of the Daily Show's legendary "Coot-Off" between Ted and Sen Robert Byrd. Enjoy. Dag-na-bit.

Determined not to get dragged down by Ted Stevens ---oh....ooops--McCain "called for him to resign his seat, saying, 'I hope that my colleagues in the Senate will be spurred by these events to redouble their efforts to end this kind of corruption once and for all.' Mr. McCain's running mate on the Republican presidential ticket, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, also called on Tuesday for Mr. Stevens to quit, CNBC reported. The cable channel said Ms. Palin had called for the senator's resignation in an interview with Maria Bartiromo.

"This is a sad day for Alaska and a sad day for Senator Stevens and his family," Palin said at Richmond International Airport yesterday. "The verdict shines a light on the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state. And that control was part of the culture of corruption that I was elected to fight, and that fight must always move forward regardless of party affiliation or seniority or even past service. As Governor of the State of Alaska, I will carefully now monitor the situation and I'll take any appropriate action as needed." Hmmm.. As needed...hmmmm...

Anyhoo, Ted says NO! He will NOT drop out. NO! I said "Good day,sir." Next up-- Would Ted ACTUALLY get re-elected? And then, would they expel him from the Senate??? Apparently there's no law against a convicted felon serving in the Senate, and to expel him, would require a two-thirds majority --not inconceivable from the mostly Democratic Senate. LOL. But the other kicker is that if he decides to keep on running in the election, Stevens may not be able to vote for himself because Alaska laws state that convicted felons are not eligible to vote. Shoulda sent in an absentee ballot.

Electoral-Vote.com has a scary thought: "If Stevens is reelected anyway, then expelled from the Senate in January, a vacancy will be created and there will be a special election. No doubt Sarah Palin will be very tempted to run and would surely win. This would inject her into national politics in a big way very fast. But the chance of Stevens being reelected next week is small." Maybe she'd figure out what the VP doe in the Senate.

Palin the fruitcake
Thanks to Teri who sends along this item from Salon about Palin's disturbing ridicule of scientific research -- it has the added bonus of advising that she check the website of my old place of employment, the Exploratorium! Speaking about earmarks in Pittburgh, "A troubled look crossed her face. 'And sometimes these dollars go to projects that have little or nothing to do with the public good, things like ...' she grinned, shaking her head side to side, her voice rising to a facetious pitch '... fruit fly research in Paris, France.' Feeling in tune with the guys in her audience, she added, 'I kid you not.'"

Speaking of flies, this very funny YouTube imagines what it would have been like to be a fly on the wall when the "Maverick" decision was made.

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Obama's Closing Argument

Why Obama is ahead: "Dressed in blue jeans and a black jacket, Barack Obama braved the cold rain falling in Pennsylvania, and held his scheduled rally - outdoors. 'A little bit of rain never hurt anybody,' he quipped to the 9,000 who showed up in ponchos and futilely holding umbrellas. Just an hour away in Quakertown, the rival ticket cancelled their own outdoor rally due to the same poor weather conditions that the Democrat embraced. 'I just want all of you to know if we see this kind of dedication on election day – there is no way that we're not going to bring change to America,' he said as the soggy crowd cheered." Don't catch a cold, man!!

In Ohio yesterday, Obama started to pull the threads of this campaign together. "We are one week away from changing America," Mr. Obama declared to about 5,000 people at the Canton Civic Center here. "In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election, that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat, that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope. In one week, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need." Watch here.

Oh, and shake out all those crazies please -- get 'em out into the open. Reuters reports that "Law enforcement arrested two men in Tennessee who had plans to rob a gun dealer to shoot Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and 'as many non-Caucasians' as possible, an official said on Monday."

And let the post-mortems begin

ABC: you are seeing people within the McCain campaign starting to look to the future. Not only Palin, but many of the McCain staffers, as well, are circulating their resumes and pointing the finger. Whenever people in the campaign are starting to worry more about their own reputations rather than whether they're going to win in seven days, there is a significant problem.

WaPo: "Probably, John McCain and Sarah Palin will lose this election. Certainly, they deserve to. With a campaign designed more to play on insecurities than promote ideas, McCain and Palin have practically framed Barack Obama's "closing argument" for him. "The question in this election is not 'Are you better off than you were four years ago?'" Obama told an audience Monday in Canton, Ohio. "We know the answer to that. The real question is 'Will this country be better off four years from now?"'The Republicans don't even try to formulate an answer, and with Obama's lead growing by the day, it's hard to imagine what might turn things around."

HuffPo: Fading in the polls, John McCain fought Barack Obama for support in economically hard-hit Ohio on Monday, each man pledging to right the economy and turn the page on the Bush era in a state with an impressive record for picking presidents. Eight days from the election, however, Republicans looked and sounded increasingly like a party anticipating defeat, and possibly a substantial one.

Michelle Obama on Leno

As the NY Times observed, Michelle Obama has really taken to her role in the public eye, and in my opinion, comes across as a very funny, down-to-earth woman. In an appearance on Leno last night she was gracious on the subject of Palin's $150 K wardrobe, saying she wanted to be "empathetic. A V.P. pick, it's like being shot out of a cannon. All of a sudden you're at the center of attention, and you want to look good...You're living in your home, minding your business, and all of a sudden you're on the national stage and everyone's watching."

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GOP: God's Own Psychos

I didn't really give this story a lot of time last week, but I mention it now as another example of how crazy these people are. Last week, Ashley Todd, a mentally disturbed McCain volunteer who claimed to have been attacked, perhaps even sexually assaulted by Obama supporters, was exposed as a liar, who created her own injuries and then lied to the police about the "attack." Okay, who would you rather be associated with? The crazy people like Michelle Bachman, Nancy Pfotenhauer and Ashley Todd? Or the nice, calm Obama people?

And what of John Moody, the Fox News Exec who said "on his blog there that "this incident could become a watershed event in the 11 days before the election. If Ms. Todd's allegations are proven accurate, some voters may revisit their support for Senator Obama, not because they are racists (with due respect to Rep. John Murtha), but because they suddenly feel they do not know enough about the Democratic nominee. If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain's quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting."

Oh don't worry Ashley, you're not the only one: Crazy WFTV (Orlando) anchor Barbara West interviews Biden about Marxism:

"You may recognize this famous quote," she said during the interview, "From each according to his abilities to each according to his needs, that's from Karl Marx. How is Senator Obama not being a Marxist if he intends to spread the wealth around?"

Biden laugh out loud: "Are you joking? Is this a joke?"

"No," she says.

"Is that a real question?" Joe seems a little disbelieving that this woman isn't from "This is Your Life."

"That's a question." West said.

But is McCain any more sane? Here he is on Meet the Press on Sunday answering what I even thought were pretty softball questions from Tom Brokaw. McCain on Meet the Press. In case you're wondering about senility, so am I-- McCain forgot George Schultz's name on his list of Secs of State who endorsed him. Once again, maybe I would have done the ame thing, but a) he's the one who brought the subject up and b) that's why I'm not running for president.

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POLL WATCHING: I know you are, but what am I?

Has this election sucked away your life? You are not alone. Believe me, you're not alone. At the Wall Street Journal Ellen Gamerman consider the national pastime of poll-watching.... "The proliferation of sites such as Pollster.com, RealClearPolitics.com and FiveThirtyEight.com are feeding the poll-watchers' habits -- offering up-to-the-minute information on the race by compiling dozens of polls, posting electoral-vote maps and inviting readers to comment. At least 10 new national polls and 15 to 30 new state polls are released every day, says Mark Blumenthal, editor and publisher of Pollster.com. RealClearPolitics.com received seven million unique users last month, thanks in part to polls moving 'out of the political-junkie circle and into the public consciousness,' says John McIntyre, the site's president and co-founder. Greg Sargent, who edits the election blog at the political site TalkingPointsMemo.com, says citizen poll-watchers are becoming increasingly sophisticated. The site recently received more than three-dozen emails from readers who thought it had included a wrong number from Gallup in its weighted average of five daily tracking polls. In fact, the site had switched to a number based on likely voters, not registered voters -- changing the composite poll by 0.1%. 'It was an interesting moment,' Mr. Sargent says."

Obviously to go by this article, I'm not wasting ENOUGH time on these things. I need to spend MUCH more time on the polling websites. By the way, did you know that on Pollster.com's graphs, you can play with the "tools" on each graph? Take Florida for instance. Don't like these automated "voice recording" polls in which pollees never talk to a live person? Click on the "Tools" link at the bottom of the graph and then click "Filter." You can uncheck the "IVR automated phone" box and *Poof*! all the auto-polls are taken out. Much better. You can even click off specific polls that you don't like. Like Fox. Or Zogby.

Republicans are sobbing into their beers. Former Bush-speechwriter David Frum says glumly: "I could pile up the poll numbers here, but frankly . . . it's too depressing. You have to go back to the Watergate era to see numbers quite so horrible for the GOP. McCain's awful campaign is having awful consequences down the ballot. I spoke a little while ago to a senior Republican House member. 'There is not a safe Republican seat in the country,' he warned. 'I don't mean that we're going to lose all of them. But we could lose any of them.'"

And is it really possible that McCain might lose LOSE Arizona? Electoral-vote.com shows McCain only leading Obama by TWO points in his home state. HuffPo has a look at the lackadaisical ground game McCain has been playing in his own backyard."On the first visit to the McCain campaign's Arizona headquarters, the office was nearly empty. Three people worked quietly at desks. On the next visit, the office again had only a few people but was filled with a surplus of unused yard signs. The contrast is striking. The McCain campaign office is devoid of people, but its walls are lined with stacks of unsold yard signs. Meanwhile, the Obama office is filled with volunteers, but signs fly out of the door almost as fast as they arrive."

On our side, Dems--quite thoroughly unused to being in this position--feel like we also should be sobbing into a beer, because isn't that what we always do at this point in a presidential election? Andrew Sullivan, ina comment for the London Times, says "To put it bluntly: they simply cannot believe the polls right now. The numbers are too good for a Democrat running for the presidency from scratch. They just don't feel right. A clear lead for a nonincumbent black guy from Chicago against a war hero and a Barbie doll? Shurely shome mishtake. But in fact there is no obvious mishtake."

Even Evil Undead Karl Rove has his own website dontcha you know, and on it is an electoral vote tracker. And um...well... he's showing 306 electoral vote for Obama right now.... I can keep from barfing long enough to enjoy the moment.... Rove recently told the London Times that if "Obama wins the presidential election, it will be because he has beaten the Republicans at their own game... The Democrats have copied Rove's formidable tactics and ground operation, pumping out a disciplined message, assembling a broad-based coalition that includes young first-time voters and African-Americans and drowning their Republican opponents with money... Rove recalled how Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, outlined their electoral strategy at the Democratic convention in August: 'He explicitly said we have deliberately copied the army of persuasion of the Republicans.'" Yeah, don't break your arm patting yourself on the back, Karl.

And I've found another map to obsess about in the Congressional Quarterly. They also have a good one of the House Races.

And more pretty graphs with yet another way of looking at the Road map to 270 for McCain. It doesn't look easy....Also a comparison to the 2000 and 2004 races. Looks MUCH more promising for Obama.

As always I like to wind up on FiveThirtyEight.com, where I can look at Obama's "win percentage" which right now is at 96.7%. Just a reminder, that means that at fivethirtyeight, McCain wins in only 3.3% of the election outcome scenarios that they can envision.

Iphone apps?

If I were really really obsessive, I'd have stolen Eric's iPhone and be following poll results there on the urban Daddy or Info Chimps apps. Well, I would but we couldn't get them to download. I'm working on it...

In the meantime, there's also an Election twitter page, which includes tweets from both campaigns and I hope will have some updates on election night. I want instant results!

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Shocked Edition

"I am shocked...SHOCKED to find that gambling is going on in here!"

"Your winnings, sir."

"Oh, thank you very much. Everybody out at once!"

--Claude Rains, Casablanca

Greenspanning the Nation

He was once the "Professor," the guy everyone consulted as if he were an oracle. Deregulator extraordinaire and free-market maven. But yesterday Alan Greenpan showed up on Capitol Hill to probably the most scathing skepticism he's ever gotten in his life. And it was good. As reported in the NY Times: "Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders' equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief," he told the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. In a contentious Q&A session, Greenspan declared that a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami'' has engulfed financial markets and conceded that his free-market ideology shunning regulation was flawed.

"Yes, I found a flaw,'' Greenspan said in response to grilling from the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. "That is precisely the reason I was shocked because I'd been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well.''

Lemme get this straight. You slashed interest rates to below anything seen before, allowed housing prices to balloon, basically created a giant housing bubble, while fighting regulation of the mortgage market tooth and nail. You permitted the growth of this shadow market of bizarre credit and derivative instruments and then knowing how much cash could be "made" with all that low-hanging fruit, you expected the banking industry to regulate itself. In fact, you were shocked--SHOCKED--that there might be people out there who would work against the interests of their own company in favor of serving their own personal aggrandizement? You're shocked that human beings might be greedy? I haven't been on this planet for 40 years and _I_ could have told you that.

You know what? Maybe Obama's not an "economic guru" like you, but looks like you pretty much sucked, so I for one, am willing to give the new guy a shot.

Check out Obama's speech in the Richmond Coliseum. Scary good. This guy is scary good...Remember, this is Richmond, Virginia. He's drawn a crowd of 12,500 to a speech in the city that served as the capital of the Confederacy. (35,000 came to his speech in Leesburg earlier that day.) The Richmond event started a half an hour late because Obama apparently stopped to greet some of the estimated 7,000 people who couldn't get into the coliseum for the speech.

And here is Obama giving a quiet commentary on his visit back to Hawaii to see his sick grandmother at a critical moment in the campaign.

Not that Obama has been without his gaffe-moment, but check out the Daily Show clip from last night, as McCain STILL manages to outgaffe him...Astonishing.

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Pain in the McCain

Yummy tidbit alert! The New York Times has finally posted the much-anticipated and potentially explosive "Inside the McCain campaign" article that will be in this Sunday's Times Magazine. Oh, it's delicious, folks. A portait of a campaign in a mess, endlessly looking for new "sticky" ways to frame their guy, constantly reacting, never driving events, the disastrous Palin pick and at the center of it all, a cranky codger of a candidate. It's the veritable how-to of how-to lose an election.He quotes a McCain advisor at one point, "This is part of the Schmidt gotta-have-absolute-message-discipline thing. That's one of the disagreements. And John can be really resistant. He's always worried about being put in a box. He's got a very sensitive nerve about it. A lot of times I would hear him say: 'Don't control me. This is my campaign.' But I think Steve has convinced him that we've got to do this if we're going to win." If you love your Schadenfreude hot, don't miss it. It's long but worth a read.

Incidentally, you might notice that Palin's voice coach, Priscilla Shanks makes a guest appearance in the article above. Ben Smith at Politico astutely notes that Shanks is on the list of RNC expenditures too, in the line item for "Operation expenditures" and "Get-out-the-vote consulting." Is this what they call "creative accounting"?

(By the way Robert Draper? No more seat for you on the McCain plane. FYI.)

The Onion, masters of the fake newspaper, branch out to TV news with a hilarious segment on a minor "campaign incident" in which John McCain is inadvertently locked overnight in the Straight Talk Express. If you're looking for an hour of more fun, there quite few Onion political videos on YouTube here. Ah, YouTube, I love you.

And more HIGH-larity and HIGH-jinx. WaPo dutifully reports that a blogger posting on an Al-Qaeda associated website announces that McCain has won the all important Al-Qaeda endorsement. Oh, Snap! Take that Colin Powell!

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What Up, Johnny Mac?

And in another incrutable maverick maneuver, the McCain campaign pulled an aide from a CNN interview that would have made them actually look GOOD. HuffPo sums it up here: "CNN host Rick Sanchez said he was 'mystified' by a last minute decision by the McCain campaign to pull a Muslim grassroots organizer from appearing on his show. The aide, Daniel Zubairi, had been scheduled to appear on Sanchez's mid-day program after he was caught on video talking down an anti-Muslim protester outside a McCain rally in Woodbridge, Virginia. But, even after telling the network that an interview was 'good to go,' the McCain shop pulled Zubairi at the last minute, leaving Sanchez in limbo on live TV. 'Wouldn't you think they would have wanted him to come on?' the CNN host would later tell the Huffington Post. 'What the guy did was courageous. I called him heroic. I'm mystified why they wouldn't embrace him for his actions. Maybe they didn't like the story, but I'll tell you. I thought it was presented it in a very transparent way, if anything I kind of gushed philosophically about how impressive and real his reaction was to the protester's hateful message. It seemed to show some of the best of McCain supporters, didn't it?'"

The World on Its Ear

In the upside down world in which Iceland is being bailed out by the IMF, Cuba has discovered that they are actually rich --oil rich that is. Apparently the island is sitting on a field that could yield 20 billion barrels of oil. Hello world... introducing the Kuwait of the Carribbean...Can I hear a pro-Cuba shout-out from the candidates...? No? Maybe later.

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Winkin' and Blinkin'

Sarah Palin drew some boos and shouts of confusion today, when while speaking in New Hampshire she mistakenly claimed that the Granite State was part of the "great Northwest." "I like being here," she told the crowd in Laconia, "because it seems like here and in our last rally too -- other parts around this great Northwest -- here in New Hampshire you just get it." Yeah, and they can see Russia from there too...

Speaking of Russia, Ms. Winkin' also appears not to have been aware that eight high-level RUSSIAN ENERGY officials were in ALASKA on Monday to meet with the Alaska Department of Natural Resources. They were there to talk with Conoco Phillips and Alaska officials about energy projects. Yeah, she's an Energy/Russian policy expert. Right on it, baby.

And I know that we've thoroughly established how little Senator Blinkin' understands about new media, but here is yet another bit of evidence. The Bits technology blog on the NY Times reports: "Trevor Potter, the general counsel for the McCain-Palin presidential campaign, sent a letter on Monday to Chad Hurley, the chief executive of YouTube, complaining that the video service, now owned by Google, had inappropriately removed McCain commercials from its site. The commercials incorporated snippets of television news broadcasts. Using provisions of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, the news organizations demanded that the commercials be removed from YouTube because they violated the organizations' copyrights...[Potter] argued that the excerpts of news broadcasts represented a fair use, which exempted them from control by the copyright owner...In one case, a McCain commercial included a clip of the CBS anchor Katie Couric talking about sexism in coverage of Senator Hillary Clinton. CBS argued that the use of the clip implied that it was endorsing the McCain campaign." Gotta fight for your right to Mash Up.

And just one more "Really?" moment: McCain called Hillary for advice on the economy??? "It's hilarious. It's like McCain is trying to copy her, but he's using a busted Xerox machine," said one of Clinton's top campaign advisers. "We were out in front on the economy. She was the first one to really pay attention to people's anxieties, and both Obama and McCain have been playing catch-up ever since." Hillary confirmed the story in a post-debate interview on CNN, although she said McCain called her several weeks ago, which at the rate that events are unfolding, might as well have been years ago.

CONTINUE READING...

Debate Number 4 Prep

So you've probably already got your Tivo set and your pizza ordered, but just in case...a reminder that the last debate is TODAY Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at 9pm EDT (6 pm PDT)at Hofstra University's Hofstra Arena in Hempstead, New York, moderated by Bob Schieffer, CBS News chief Washington correspondent and host of Face the Nation. This debate will focus on domestic and economic policy. It will have a different format than the first two debates, no podiums or stools, but candidates at the table with Bob. "The 'Knights of the Round Table' format is better," CBS's Jeff Greenfield wrote in Slate on Monday. "It's much harder to deliver well-worn talking points when you're sitting right next to your opponent and a moderator than when you're at a podium, which invites bloviation. It permits Schieffer to look into a candidate's eyes from just a foot or two away and press him for an answer."

Greenfield also fields some other excellent ideas: "So widespread is the discontent that some people are getting desperate. In Indiana's highly competitive Ninth Congressional District, Republican Party Chairman Larry Shickles actually proposed last week that the candidates be hooked up to lie detectors for their scheduled Oct. 21 debate. The Republican and Libertarian candidates said yes while the Democratic incumbent had no comment....I confess that I'm drawn to Shickles' idea, not just because it tracks closely with my own notion of slipping sodium pentathol into the candidates' drinking glasses."

Poor Bob's getting a lot of unsolicited advice on how not to screw this one up and hold feet to the fire. "When a candidate doesn't answer the question, my opinion is that, at the very least, the moderator needs to say, 'You didn't answer the question,' former CBS anchor Dan Rather told Politico, on the sidelines of a Time Warner conference Tuesday on the media and politics. "Even if you have to interrupt," Rather added, the moderator should "keep on asking the question, either until the candidate answers it, or it's clear the candidate is not going to answer it." I guess that's why Dan wasn't asked to moderate. Hah!

On CNN today, some pundit or other was saying, "But will Obama be ready if McCain decides to bring up Ayers?" Now, I ask you, when in the last 20 months have you seen this guy NOT ready?? McCain is a man without a plan-- he's in New York for the last couple of days trying to raise money, while Obama is out greeting the 3pm shift workers at the Chrysler plant in Perryburg, Ohio. And people wonder why Obama is leading in Ohio?

I actually rather expect that McCain will try to bring up Ayers and ACORN and I expect a lot of vague generalities about his economic plan. But frankly at this point, if he's even got a hope of winning some independents, McCain has gotta start by first convincing people that his cheese hasn't done slid off his cracker, if you know what I mean. And heaven help him if Obama decides to bring up the fact that the guy heading McCain's transition team once LOBBIED for Saddam Hussein.

The Caucus Blog at the NY Times offers some stuff to watch for in this debate. "Mr. McCain has already vowed to "whip" Mr. Obama's "you-know-what" tonight. Of course, he has signaled such a get-tough approach before, only to flag. But this promises to be his last chance for direct confrontation. Watch to see how he uses it and whether he spends more time trying to restore voters' confidence in himself or to raise doubts about Mr. Obama's readiness to serve as commander in chief. The tone he strives for and the degree to which he hammers Mr. Obama will say a lot about where he thinks the race stands now and how he will conduct the rest of the campaign.

CONTINUE READING...

McCain's Camp Pain

This is the graphic on the Sacramento County Republicans' official website. It's been taken down, but the very fact that it could be posted on an official site for the Republican party says a lot about where this race has gone--and it ain't pretty.

It's stuff like this that sends Keith Olbermann--not to mention the rest of us-- on his high dudgeon in a new Special Comment on the McCain campaign's violent tendencies. As Paris Hilton is fond of saying, "Loves it.":

"Sen. McCain, your supporters, at your events, are calling Obama a terrorist and traitor and are calling for him to be killed. And yet you keep bringing back these same rabid Right Wing nuts to deliberately stir these crowds into frenzies....There are some things to respect and honor about you, Sen. McCain, but on this, you're not only a fraud, Senator but you are tacitly inciting lunatics to violence. If you want to again grand-stand and suspend your campaign here's your big chance. Suspend your campaign now, until you, or somebody else, gets some control over it and it ceases to be a clear and present danger to the peace of this nation."

And as usual, the Daily Show nails it again with the "levels of crazy here," in an Aasif Mandvi segment.

Campbell Brown, in her inimitable and darling Campbell Brown way, appeals to the candidates directly to cut the bull: "From both candidates, we need real answers. And please don't tell us that you are going to cut pork barrel spending and scrub the waste out of every bloated federal agency. I mean, name a political candidate who hasn't promised to cut the fat and eliminate waste in government. Please, no bull. Be straight with us, we can take it. Americans understand the stakes. Just give us brutal honesty, because so far we are not really getting it."

CONTINUE READING...

Reboot!

Hey, look-ee! After telling us yesterday that he would not have any more proposals this week unless developments call for some, turns out McCain DOES have a plan to share with us. Drum roll if you please.....

In a plan in which most of the benefits would go to older voters, Mr. McCain proposed that people 59 and up who withdraw money from IRAs or 401(k) retirement plans in 2009 and 2010 pay a tax rate of 10 percent on the money rather than their higher normal rates. That part of the plan would cost $36 billion, based on the McCain campaign's internal estimates.

In addition, Mr. McCain proposed a reduction in the tax on long-term capital gains to 7.5 percent from 15 percent in 2009 and 2010 at an estimated cost of $10 billion; an acceleration in the tax write-off for stock losses, allowing Americans to deduct $15,000 in losses a year for the tax years 2008 and 2009 (current rules allow deductions up to $3,000 in losses); a suspension on the tax on unemployment insurance benefits in 2008 and 2009; and a government guarantee on 100 percent of all savings accounts for six months.

I especially loved this part of the McCain speech, which unveiled the plan in Blue Bell, PA.

Mr. McCain sharply criticized Mr. Obama for his fiscal policies and said repeatedly that his rival, who has pledged tax cuts for 95 percent of American families, would in fact raise taxes.

"He is an eloquent speaker, but even he can't turn a record of supporting higher taxes into a credible promise to cut taxes," Mr. McCain said. "What he promises today is the opposite of what he has done his entire career. Perhaps never in history have the American people been asked to risk so much based on so little."

Oh. As opposed to you, Mr. Consistency, who just voted for the regulations you've been trying to dismantle, lo, these many years. We can trust you to do what you say you would because you're the guy who "suspended" his campaign til the financial crisis was fixed, then "unsuspended" it, even though clearly, things are not "fixed" now. The guy who said he wouldn't resort to smear tactics, then did. The guy whose campaign people said he'd have an economic plan yesterday, then said you "would not have any more proposals this week unless developments call for some," and then announced your new plan the next day. You even lied to David Letterman. Oh yeah. YOU'RE reliable. We can take a risk on you.

Obama's people come back with their retort, which is much more on point than mine above, I grant you: "John McCain's latest gambit is a day late and 101 million middle-class families short. McCain's plan would spend $300 billion to bailout the same irresponsible Wall Street banks that got us into this mess without doing anything to help jumpstart job growth for America's middle class. His plan continues to provide no tax relief at all to 101 million hardworking families, including 97 percent of senior citizens, and it does nothing to cut taxes for small businesses or give them access to credit. Senator McCain also shows how little he understands the economy by offering lower capital gains rates in a year in which people don't have an awful lot of capital gains. His trickle-down, ideological recipes won't strengthen our economy and grow our middle-class, but Barack Obama's pro-jobs, pro-family economic policies will," said Obama-Biden campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

In spite of all, though, McCain's campaign continues to put a bright face on a bleak poll-number situation. McCain's people continue to hope that their boy can pull off the same kind of "come-from-behind" magic that Ronald Reagan did in 1980, but at WaPo, they point out that in the weeks leading up to the election, Carter actually did not maintain a large lead over Reagan and didn't have the kind of momentum we're seeing for Obama. "A post-election summary of polls by then-CBS News pollster Warren Mitofsky shows that at no point over the final two weeks did Carter have a lead bigger than three percentage points.

CONTINUE READING...

Foundations of Modern Capitalism

I guess Europeans are as quick to move as Americans are-- they finally got around to a statement. From today's London Times: "At a summit in Paris, the 15 countries using the euro pledged that no bank will be allowed to fail. The European accord follows Saturday's announcement by the Group of Seven industrialised countries of an "action plan" to thaw frozen credit markets. The two moves may be the prelude to a wider international gathering of world leaders. George W Bush has suggested he may convene such a meeting later this week where the very foundations of modern capitalism may be reassessed." George Bush... where have I heard that name.... Who is that again?

Paul Krugman, the Cassandra of the Financial World: "Last month, when the U.S. Treasury Department allowed Lehman Brothers to fail, I wrote that Henry Paulson, the Treasury secretary, was playing financial Russian roulette. Sure enough, there was a bullet in that chamber: Lehman's failure caused the world financial crisis, already severe, to get much, much worse. The consequences of Lehman's fall were apparent within days, yet key policy players have largely wasted the past four weeks. Now they've reached a moment of truth: They'd better do something soon — in fact, they'd better announce a coordinated rescue plan this weekend — or the world economy may well experience its worst slump since the Great Depression."

Reuters has more on the global financial crisis, as it gets bigger than just the G7 countries...for obsessive crisis-monitors like me. A handy collection of international articles on who's going down. Apparently, if you're a poor country to start with, it's like being a poor person watching this crisis. "African economies have so far been only indirectly hit by global market turmoil but tighter credit markets may impact funding for projects, even profitable ones, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday."

And on domestic shores, GM and Chrysler appear to be in negotiations for a merger! "A merger would be a historic event, with two of the most iconic names in American industry coming together to survive in an increasingly difficult environment. Both have roots dating back decades in Detroit and, with Ford, long dominated the auto industry — until Japanese and other foreign car makers began making inroads into the American market...General Motors' stock has fallen from more than $43 a share last year to less than $5, and it is burning through its cash hoard at a rapid rate. Chrysler, as a private company, no longer needs to report its finances."

By the way, during the debate, McCain claimed that he too had written a letter warning of the dangers of a Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac housing market meltdown, "I'd like you to see the letter that a group of senators and I wrote warning exactly of this crisis. Senator Obama's name was not on that letter." ProPublica asks, um.... which letter was that? T'would be interesting if the McCain campaign could provide us the letter.

CONTINUE READING...

Desperate Times

Remember how a few weeks ago we said that desperate parties will reach for desperate measures? It's getting desperate out there for McCain.

Even former McCain strategist John Weaver is a little appalled at the frenzy of hate that has been whipped up at McCain and Palin rallies, saying, " top Republicans have a responsibility to temper this behavior. "People need to understand, for moral reasons and the protection of our civil society, the differences with Sen. Obama are ideological, based on clear differences on policy and a lack of experience compared to Sen. McCain, and from a purely practical political vantage point, please find me a swing voter, an undecided independent, or a torn female voter that finds an angry mob mentality attractive. Sen. Obama is a classic liberal with an outdated economic agenda. We should take that agenda on in a robust manner. As a party we should not and must not stand by as the small amount of haters in our society question whether he is as American as the rest of us. Shame on them and shame on us if we allow this to take hold."

Already , I think McCain may be finding that he can't control the beast that he has unleashed. At a rally on Friday, a McCain supporter went a little far, even for McCain's taste and he tried to dial things back. "I don't trust Obama," a woman said. "I have read about him. He's an Arab." "No, ma'am," McCain said several times, shaking his head in disagreement. "He's a decent, family man, [a] citizen that I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues and that's what this campaign is all about." The crown groaned its disapproval apparently, and booed him. Isn't it wonderful to know that as a full-grown adult you can still behave like you're a three-year old with a loaded weapon?

Obama praised McCain for tempering the tone, "'I want to acknowledge that Senator McCain tried to tone down the rhetoric in his town hall meeting yesterday,' Mr. Obama said, speaking at an early-morning rally in North Philadelphia. 'I appreciated his reminder that we can disagree while still being respectful of each other. I've said it before, and I'll say it again – Senator McCain has served this country with honor, and he deserves our thanks for that.'" My God, can ANYTHING ruffle this guy? Andrew Sullivan pits it this way: Americans "need a Valium. They can now vote for one for president."

Later in the weekend, Palin dropped the puck at a Philly Flyers hockey game, and was roundly booed. I could say she reaps what she has sown, but to be honest, I have to say I'm not deriving any pleasure at all out of this. I think it's just nasty ugly and so completely not what the country needs right now, or frankly at any time.

On the Road in Scranton

Hillary and Bill Clinton campaigned in the key area of Scranton with native son Joe Biden and his wife Jill. Just making sure Pennsylvania stays blue... Hillary reminded us: "Make no mistake about it. We've done it before and we will do it again. America will once again rise from the ashes of the Bushes."

Climate Change

Georgia Congressman and civil rights leader John Lewis, whom McCain has named as a figure he respects, said in a statement to Politico: "What I am seeing reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history," Lewis said in a statement issued today for Politico's Arena forum. "Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse."

Lewis didn't accuse McCain of imitating Wallace, but suggested there were similarities.

"George Wallace never threw a bomb," Lewis noted. "He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who were simply trying to exercise their constitutional rights. Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed on Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama."

McCain responded to this ouch moment:

"I am saddened that John Lewis, a man I've always admired, would make such a brazen and baseless attack on my character and the character of the thousands of hardworking Americans who come to our events to cheer for the kind of reform that will put America on the right track," the GOP nominee said in a statement this afternoon.

He added: "I call on Senator Obama to immediately and personally repudiate these outrageous and divisive comments that are so clearly designed to shut down debate 24 days before the election. Our country must return to the important debate about the path forward for America."

And Obama's reply to that suggestion:

"Senator Obama does not believe that John McCain or his policy criticism is in any way comparable to George Wallace or his segregationist policies," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton. "But John Lewis was right to condemn some of the hateful rhetoric that John McCain himself personally rebuked just last night, as well as the baseless and profoundly irresponsible charges from his own running mate that the Democratic nominee for President of the United States 'pals around with terrorists.'

"As Barack Obama has said himself, the last thing we need from either party is the kind of angry, divisive rhetoric that tears us apart at a time of crisis when we desperately need to come together. That is the kind of campaign Senator Obama will continue to run in the weeks ahead."

Jeez people, can we just get ON with it?

I'm reminded, a little sadly, of what Obama said at the DNC way back before any of this really took off, "But what I will not do is suggest that the Senator takes his positions for political purposes. Because one of the things that we have to change in our politics is the idea that people cannot disagree without challenging each other's character and patriotism. The times are too serious, the stakes are too high for this same partisan playbook. So let us agree that patriotism has no party. I love this country, and so do you, and so does John McCain."

It's been another bad week for McCain, whose reputation as a military hero took a hit with the Tim Dickinson Rolling Stone story, which recounted McCain's less-than-heroic actions on the day when the fuel tank on his jet caught fire on the deck of the USS Forrestal, setting off a missile and ultimately causing one of the worst disasters in modern U.S. naval history. McCain was not to be found at the forefront of fire-fighters, but rather in the ready room, where he retreated after jumping out of his damaged jet.

Jeff Stein at the Congressional Quarterly takes that story a step further, questioning whether McCain actually played a more pivotal role in the missile accident on the USS Forrestal. "According to these accounts, McCain, whose A4-E Skyhawk was queued up in a line of jets waiting to take off, "wet started" his engine, a prank designed to startle a trailing pilot with a flame of exploding kerosene."

Normally, it's a harmless, common stunt by "cowboy pilots." But on this occasion the exploding kerosene caused a six-foot long Zuni rocket under the trailing pilot's wing to launch across the flight deck.

"[It] ripped through the fuel tank of McCain's aircraft," Dickinson writes. "Hundreds of gallons of fuel splashed onto the deck and came ablaze. Then: Clank. Clank. Two 1,000-pound bombs dropped from under the belly of McCain's stubby A-4 . . . into the fire."

McCain rolled out of his cockpit onto the deck and ran for his life, Dickinson writes.

"Just then, one of his bombs 'cooked off,' blowing a crater in the deck and incinerating the sailors who had rushed past McCain with hoses and fire extinguishers."

But according to historian Mary Hershberger, writing on the liberal Truthdig.com site, McCain panicked.

"Some of those who were on the Forrestal and other persons familiar with the ordnance told me that because the rocket did not hit McCain's craft, only actions by the pilot could have caused any bomb to fall from McCain's Skyhawk," wrote Hershberger, who in 2005 published a biography, "Jane Fonda's War," advertised as "an antidote to the 'Hanoi Jane' myth."

"These sources . . . who spoke under the condition that they not be publicly identified," Hershberger wrote, "agree with each other that, if any bomb fell from the McCain airplane, it was because of actions that he took either in error or panic upon seeing the fire on the deck or in his hasty exit from the plane. Two switches in the cockpit of a Skyhawk need to be thrown to drop such a bomb, according to the sources."

It might set the In-the-tank-for-Obama-ites teeth on edge, will anyone pay attention? Probably not.

Anyway, one could argue that it' not necessary to dig into the past to help the McCain campaign implode. They seem to be doing fine all on their own thanks very much. This morning, Bill Kristol called McCain' campaign "pathetic" on Fox News Sunday. Andrew Sullivan hilariously characterizes McCain's effort as coyote-esque.

Over the weekend, CBS announced that McCain and Dave Letterman have tentatively made up-- or at least, McCain will appear on Dave's show. That could be good, or really bad...

And SNL ran a repeat this week, but through the magic of the internet, you can see them spoof the last McCain-Obama debate here. No Tina Fey, but still funny.

CONTINUE READING...

Guilt by Association

Dina reminded me about the questions about Andrew McCain, Cindy's son, and his role as director of the Silver State Bank, which Federal regulators shut down earlier this year. I thought it had been a bigger story, but since a few people have told me now they don't know anything about it, I duly include it here. "Andrew K. McCain, a son of Republican presidential nominee John McCain, sat on the boards of Silver State Bank and of its parent, Silver State Bancorp, starting in February but resigned in July citing "personal reasons," corporate filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission show. Andrew McCain also was a member of the bank's audit committee, responsible for oversight of the company's accounting. Regulators on Friday shut down Silver State Bank, saying the Nevada bank failed because of losses on soured loans, mainly in commercial real estate and land development." Not that anyone will investigate or anything.

============================

The poll analyst Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com is now showing a win percentage for Obama over 90% of the time. 538 runs 10,000 election simulations each day of how the election might go based on the probabilities, and in 90% of the scenarios, Obama wins.

Oh, it looks crazy cool. I love it. But in a way it's not surprising. Remember, folks, Obama used to lecture on Voting Rights and Election Law at the University of Chicago. I think if any candidate has carefully assessed how to build a successful campaign, how to assemble a solid base of electoral votes, it's the relentlessly practical Obama. A former student of his notes that, "Obama reminded me that whatever my beliefs were, I'd have to find a way to implement them in the real world if I wanted to make change happen."

=============================
Also don't forget to check Project Vote, which lists the names and addresses of purged voters in Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas (so far). If you live in one of these states, check the list TODAY to see if you have been purged and also check for friends, relatives, and neighbors." If you find yourself or someone you know on one of these lists, they may be able to protest being removed from the rolls.

In the NY Times yesterday, there was a piece that noted that these purges may be illegal! "The six swing states seem to be in violation of federal law in two ways. Michigan and Colorado are removing voters from the rolls within 90 days of a federal election, which is not allowed except when voters die, notify the authorities that they have moved out of state, or have been declared unfit to vote.Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio seem to be improperly using Social Security data to verify registration applications for new voters. In addition to the six swing states, three more states appear to be violating federal law. Alabama and Georgia seem to be improperly using Social Security information to screen registration applications from new voters. And Louisiana appears to have removed thousands of voters after the federal deadline for taking such action."

My own humble opinion is this: while I'm thrilled that there may be a legal challenge to the purging, CHECK TO MAKE SURE YOU'RE NOT REMOVED ANYWAY. NOW. JUST IN CASE. Maybe it will be ruled illegal, but maybe that won't happen until November 5, y'know what I'm saying?

CONTINUE READING...

Square Deal

"Let the watchwords of all our people be the old familiar watchwords of honesty, decency, fair-dealing, and commonsense.... We must treat each man on his worth and merits as a man. We must see that each is given a square deal, because he is entitled to no more and should receive no less...The welfare of each of us is dependent fundamentally upon the welfare of all of us."

---Theodore Roosevelt

Yes, my weary fellow-travelers, we have now survived three debates. I feel like each time I burn out neurons and my ulcer gets bigger.

"Stop watching that stuff," Eric shouts from the back room (where he himself has been listening in the the CNN post-debate blather), "It's going to ROT YOUR BRAIN."

I can't help myself though. I'm addicted. Can we just vote? Everyone? Right now? Call today Election Day and have DONE with it?

First off, in case you missed it, the evening's choicest tidbits from Politico, a video-transcript from the NY Times, full video from C-Span and the text transcript from CNN.

And the liveblogged factcheck from: the AP, ABC News, MSNBC, and the Washington Post and Barack Obama's website.

Plays Well With Others.

Sometimes I wonder if I even know what I think until someone tells me what I think that I think. Word from the instapolls:

• NBC's focus group of undecided Pennsylvania voters had the Illinois Democrat winning by roughly a 60-40 split.
  
• Frank Luntz's focus group, over at Fox, showed undecided voters leaning towards Obama because of his position on health care.
  
• CBS's focus group of independents had the Democratic nominee winning the debate at 39 percent to McCain's 27 percent, with 35 percent of the respondents saying it was a tie.
  
• Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a Democratic polling firm, had a focus group of undecideds leaning to Obama by a margin of 42 percent to 24 percent. "Before the debate, McCain had a 48/46 favorability rating; that improved to 56/36 by the end. But that's about where Obama started the evening—54/36. After an hour and a half, Obama's favorability numbers were 80/14. As Joe Biden would say, let me repeat that: 80% of the undecided voters had favorable views of Obama and only 14% saw him negatively for a net rating of +66. Not even Bill Clinton got such a warm response in town hall formats."
• Meanwhile, SurveyUSA interviewed 741 debate watchers in the state of Washington, 54 percent of whom thought Obama was the "clear winner" compared with McCain's 29 percent. That same polling firm had the first debate as a tie. In tonight's survey: 42 percent of respondents said McCain was too forceful.
  
• And the CNN focus group of undecided voters in Ohio had the margin at an even wider spread: Obama 54 percent to McCain's 30.

Reaction:
Andrew Sullivan (The Atlantic): "This was, I think, a mauling: a devastating and possibly electorally fatal debate for McCain... All I can say is that, simply on terms of substance, clarity, empathy, style and authority, this has not just been an Obama victory. It has been a wipe-out."

Will Wilkinson: "Gut read. Obama owned it. This election's over unless he murders and eats the flesh of a child on live television."

Ron Dreher (Crunchy Conservative): "Nothing McCain did tonight changed a thing. He's done. This race is now the 2008 version of Clinton vs. Dole. And you know how well that turned out for the Republicans."

Andrew McCarthy (National Review): "We have a disaster here -- which is what you should expect when you delegate a non-conservative to make the conservative (nay, the American) case. We can parse it eight ways to Sunday, but I think the commentary is missing the big picture... "

Ross Douthat (The Atlantic): "Obama was unruffled and consistent - change vs. more of the same, change vs. more of the same, rinse and repeat - and for whatever it's worth the physical and generational contrast between the two men was very striking in this setting, and especially in the early going McCain seemed to me be showing his age as he delivered his answers. He improved as the night went on, but the vigor gap was palpable."

PoliticalWire.com: "Tonight's debate wasn't even close. Sen. Barack Obama ran away with it -- particularly when speaking about the economy and health care. Talking about his mother's death from cancer was very powerful. On nearly every issue, Obama was more substantive, showed more compassion and was more presidential."

And 23/6 offers this darkly humorous observation: "John, it this really how you want to go out? Calling Obama a terrorist behind his back and a "one" to his face? You've come this far without snapping, but you're turning into Grandpa at Christmas dinner. You don't like how any of the grandkids turned out, your dentures hurt and you're two scotches away from calling Grandma a slut."

The NY Times weighed in with an "ow-ee" editorial this morning. "It is a sorry fact of American political life that campaigns get ugly, often in their final weeks. But Senator John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin have been running one of the most appalling campaigns we can remember.They have gone far beyond the usual fare of quotes taken out of context and distortions of an opponent's record — into the dark territory of race-baiting and xenophobia. Senator Barack Obama has taken some cheap shots at Mr. McCain, but there is no comparison...We certainly expected better from Mr. McCain, who once showed withering contempt for win-at-any-cost politics. He was driven out of the 2000 Republican primaries by this sort of smear, orchestrated by some of the same people who are now running his campaign." Well, it is that bastion of Liberal trash -- so what have they got to lose by calling a spade a spade?

Here's my take (not that I'm so much more insightful than everyone else above): McCain came off as flippant, IMHO, unserious, and yes, at times, he sounded nasty to me, especially the little side cracks to Tom Brokaw and the hair transplant thing. He blustered, and gave his words dramatic overtones, but ultimately looked just graceless, both physically and temperamentally. Everyone kept saying this "town hall" format was McCain's metier, but honestly, I thought he looked like a non-dancing guy told to move across the stage in a ballet, (Michael Crowley at the National Review agrees) while Obama looked comfortable, and more importantly, really seemed to be listening both to the questioners and to his opponent. Maybe this town hall thing works well for McCain if the audience is in the same room, but on TV, it had shades of Nixon vs. Kennedy.

Body Language
Oh look -- he actually looked at him! Well I guess that's better than the chilly glare and "Get Away from Me" look Obama got when he crossed the aisle in the Senate to offer a handshake to McCain last week.

But really now, is McCain not able to rise above his personal dislike of Obama? Wolf Blitzer at CNN observed: "It's apparent to say that Sen. McCain has some disdain, I think it's fair to say, for Sen. Obama. That was very apparent throughout the course of this debate."

Swipes?
Was that hair transplant thing a swipe at Joe Biden? The man just put his mother-in-law in the ground--lay off him, Johnny Mac.

McCain: "Really the match that lit this fire was Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I'll bet you, you may never even have heard of them before this crisis." Um, actually pretty much anyone with a mortgage has heard of them, you condescending blatherer.

McCain: "You know who voted for it? You might never know. That one. You know who voted against it? Me."

Zingers
I liked this moment that HuffPo points out too:" In their first debate, John McCain's constant refrain was that Barack Obama "didn't understand." Tonight, Obama grabbed that phrase and ran with it in the other direction, prefacing his remarks on how the economic downturn would affect our foreign policy goals by saying, "Senator McCain, in the last debate and again today suggested that I don't understand. It's true. There are some things I don't understand. I don't understand how we ended up invading a country that had nothing to do with 9/11."

Obama nailed McCain about singing "Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran." McCain responds that he was just "joking with an old veteran friend..." Yeah, um, too bad it's on YouTube and too bad it shows you making that crack at a large public gathering.

Tom Brokaw: At the end of the debate, Brokaw asked McCain to get out of the way of his Teleprompter, so he could sign off. A waggish Arianna Huffington cracks: "Brokaw might as well have been speaking on behalf of the future: Senator McCain can you please get out of the way so we can get on with it?"

Who is Barack Obama?
I think we know the answer to McCain's Ayn Rand-styled question now. The Caucus notes that after the debate, "Mr. McCain shook hands with several audience members and then left fairly quickly. Mr. Obama and his wife, Michelle, stuck around to shake far more hands, pose for pictures, sign autographs, and answer more questions, including from people who had been on stage but did not get a chance to ask their questions. Only when Secret Service agents told them it was time to go did the couple leave." Well, he is the biggest celebrity in the world.

Obama even had time to show up to Al Gore's fundraiser right after the debate. I guess John had to get home to get to bed early.

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Georgia on My Mind

So McCain has been hawkish about Russia for, lo, these many weeks, but Andrew Sullivan points us to some interesting background on McCain and his personal relationship with Georgia's president Saakashvili. How did I miss this? Was McCain involved in egging on Saakashvili in this ill-advised tweaking of Russia's nose??? From Newsweek last August: "Mikheil Saakashvili, his eyes bloodshot from sleeplessness and his face caked with television makeup, summoned his closest advisers into his office above Tbilisi's Old City. It was 2 a.m. on Aug. 12, and columns of Russian tanks were rolling down the highway toward the Georgian capital. "I am never going to flee," the president told his team. "I will not live my life regretting that I abandoned my own country at war." Then he sent them home to change out of their suits and ties so they could fight the invaders. Swigging a can of Red Bull, Saakashvili grabbed a phone and called the trusted friend and mentor he had turned to every night since Aug. 8, when the war began: John McCain. A source close to the Republican standard-bearer, asking not to be named discussing a private conversation, says McCain voiced support for diplomatic and political pressure against Moscow. "Hang in there," the senator said, according to a Saakashvili aide on condition of anonymity. "We are not going to let this happen … We are doing everything we can to stop this aggression."

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Square Deal

During the debate McCain reached back in history to reference Teddy Roosevelt, whom he said was his "hero." (He also mentioned Hoover, which I think takes him on dangerous ground-- "Wait, were you and Herbert Hoover drinking buddies, John?") Anyway, Teddy Roosevelt. That's nice, John, I didn't know you were such a Progressive. You know, while you're looking for Teddy Roosevelt quotes, you might want to check into the Rough Rider's "Square Deal" plan too.

It is all-essential to the continuance of our healthy national life that we should recognize this community of interest among our people. The welfare of each of us is dependent fundamentally upon the welfare of all of us, and therefore in public life that man is the best representative of each of us who seeks to do good to each by doing good to all; in other words, whose endeavor it is not to represent any special class and promote merely that class's selfish interests, but to represent all true and honest men of all sections and all classes and to work for their interests by working for our common country.

Hmmmm, sounds a little bit like someone else I know... "For alongside our famous individualism, there's another ingredient in the American saga, a belief that we are all connected as one people. If there's a child on the south side of Chicago who can't read, that matters to me, even if it's not my child. If there's a senior citizen somewhere who can't pay for their prescription and having to choose between medicine and the rent, that makes my life poorer, even if it's not my grandparent.If there's an Arab-American family being rounded up without benefit of an attorney or due process, that threatens my civil liberties. It is that fundamental belief -- it is that fundamental belief -- I am my brother's keeper, I am my sisters' keeper -- that makes this country work. It's what allows us to pursue our individual dreams, yet still come together as a single American family: "E pluribus unum," out of many, one."

By the way, John, Teddy Roosevelt also said this: "Working women have the same need to protection that working men have; the ballot is as necessary for one class as to the other; we do not believe that with the two sexes there is identity of function; but we do believe there should be equality of right." Ted Kennedy and I will be checking in with you on "Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act," Sen. McCain. You should show up to vote this time.

Oh, and note to Sen McCain? Stop peppering every rhetorical moment with the phrase "my friends." In case you haven't noticed, I am not your friend. Even if I didn't take a drink every time you uttered the phrase, I'd still be barfing by the end of the night.

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Statistical significance: Obama's Gallup Daily lead has expanded to 11 points today. I know, I know, I'm still skeptical about polls. Frankly I think Obama's actual lead is MUCH bigger than even pollsters are measuring. I admit though, I do like to see all the little charts on former McCain states with the red line going down and the blue line going up. North Carolina. Virginia. Ohio. Florida. Warms the cockles of my heart. Whatever those are.

Clock is ticking...Only 27 days to the election, people!

RockTheVote's list of voter registration deadlines. Here are some upcoming dates--forward this on to your friends in the appropriate states (swing states in bold).

• Wednesday, Oct 8: Missouri
• Friday, Oct 10: New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma
  
• Saturday, Oct 11: Delaware
  
• Tuesday, Oct 14: Maryland, New Jersey, Oregon
  
• Wednesday, Oct 15: Massachusetts, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Also don't forget to check Project Vote, which lists the names and addresses of purged voters in Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas (so far). If you live in one of these states, check the list TODAY to see if you have been purged and also check for friends, relatives, and neighbors." If you find yourself or someone you know on one of these lists, they may be able to protest being removed from the rolls.

If you're voting absentee, you may have to get your ballot in weeks before the Nov 4th Election date. Declare Yourself has links to each state's voter information page where you can find out how to get your absentee ballot.

And again, in many states, you may vote EARLY, before Nov 4, to avoid the long lines (Ohio, your early voting week is over). Reed College has compiled lists of which states offer early voting/absentee balloting options.

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And since Katie mentioned overseas friends, I do want note that U.S. citizens residing abroad can still vote! If you know US citizens abroad, folks in the active military, paople working for the State Department -- YES, they CAN vote. Forward them the link to the Overseas Vote Foundation.

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