Polling Update: Oct 22

For all of us worriers out there-- yes, I know this means me-- who STILL fret endlessly that Obama will somehow get edged out of this election, Charlie Cook at the National Journal has some calming things to note:

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  First, no candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win.
• Second, early voting has made comebacks harder and would tend to diminish the impact of the kind of late-breaking development that might save McCain's candidacy.
• Third, considering that 89 percent of all voters who identified themselves as Democrats voted for John Kerry four years ago and 93 percent of Republicans cast their ballots for George W. Bush, the switch from parity between the parties to a 10-point Democratic advantage would seem to almost seal this outcome irrespective of the candidates fielded on each side.
• Fourth, with Obama now outspending McCain routinely by margins of 3- and 4-to-1 in advertising in so many states, it's hard to see how the Arizonan's campaign can drive a message.
• Fifth, while many are talking about the so-called "Bradley effect," it hasn't been seen in at least 15 years and the likely surge in turnout among African-American and young people seems sufficient to offset it anyway.
• Finally, Obama is now leading in every state that Al Gore and John Kerry both won, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and he is ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico, the three states that went once but not twice for Democrats in 2000 and 2004. He is also ahead in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. If that weren't enough (and it is), he's running basically even in Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, and even threatening in Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.

Let's not forget too, that McCain has hung all his hopes for winning on taking Pennsylvania. But, Johnny Mac...unless you're planning some disastrous "accident" that will only affect Democrats, honey.... Pennsylvania doesn't look good. See how that Obama line is going sharply up and your line is going sharply down?

All this still won't stop me from obsessively checking the polling numbers. LOL

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com conveniently noted yesterday the poll release times in his fascinating assessment of all the polls out there, so now I know when to check his site and RealClearPolitics for updated numbers.

• Zogby/C-SPAN/Reuters: 12:45 AM Eastern Time.
• Research 2000/Daily Kos: Early AM, usually about 7:30 Eastern time.
• Rasmussen Reports: Promptly at 9:30 AM Eastern. Results are sometimes available slightly earlier for subscribers to their Premium service.
• The Diageo Hotline Poll: Midmorning, usually around 10:30 AM Eastern time. Results are often teased on the Hotline Blog before they appear in full.
• Battleground/Tarrance/George Washington U.: Weekdays only -- midmornings around 10:30 AM Eastern time.
• Gallup: At 1 PM Eastern time, or a few minutes thereafter.
• Investors Business' Daily/TIPP: Mid-afternoon, usually about 3 PM Eastern time.
• ABC News/Washington Post: Embargoed until 5 PM Eastern.

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13 days to the election! We are now only TWO WEEKS from the Election!

All over the country the Early Voting juggernaut continues to amaze. The NY Times estimates that one third of all voter may have cast a ballot before Nov 4, and observes that many of those early voters are Democrats.

Andrew Sullivan at Daily Dish has some email "snapshots" detailing long lines and unprecedented turnout from voters around the country.

Floridians, by the way, STAY IN LINE and VOTE! Obama promised yesterday to make sure everyone's votes are counted. As HuffPo reports, he said that there will be "volunteers on hand at every polling location every day in case something goes wrong. Should someone experience difficulty casting their vote they would need only to flag down a person wearing a blue hat and help would be on the way. A toll-free number, 877.2FLOBAMA, will also be available for people to call for help." Man's got a plan. According to Bloomberg, Obama has engaged a massive team to make sure no one is disenfranchised."In Florida, Democratic lawyer Charles H. Lichtman has assembled almost 5,000 lawyers to monitor precincts, assist voters turned away at the polls and litigate any disputes that can't be resolved out of court. `On Election Day, I will be managing the largest law firm in the country, albeit for one day,' said Lichtman, 53, a Fort Lauderdale corporate lawyer and veteran of the five-week recount after the 2000 election when Florida eventually delivered the presidency to George W. Bush."

I think we also have to take a moment to stop and congratulate each other on the record voter registration that took place this year. From Arkansas to New Jersey, from San Mateo to Kalamazoo, it's been crazy--let's just make sure turnout is as high!

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AVOID THE LINES (or join the lines...) and vote early! Your state may offer the option of voting early, if you're willing to go to your local Board of Elections. Reed College has compiled lists of which states offer early voting/absentee balloting options with links to official websites. Here is the shortlist of states and their early voting windows:

Alaska: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arkansas: Oct 20-Nov 3 Arizona: : Oct 2-31 California: Oct 6-Nov 3 Colorado: Oct 20-31 Georgia: Sept 22-Oct 31 Florida: Oct 20-Nov 2 Hawaii: Oct 21-Nov 1 Idaho: Oct 10-Nov 3 Illinois: Oct 13-30 Indiana: Oct 6-Nov 3 Iowa: Sept 25- Nov 3 Kansas: Oct 15-Nov 3 Louisiana: Oct 21-28 Maine: Oct 5-Nov 3 Montana: Oct 6- Nov 3

Nebraska: Sept 30- Nov 3 Nevada: Oct 18-31 New Mexico: Oct 7-Nov 1 North Carolina: Oct 16-Nov 1 North Dakota: Sept 25-Nov 3 Ohio: Sept 30-Nov 3 Oklahoma: Oct 31-Nov 3 South Dakota: now-Nov 3 Tennessee: Oct 15-30 Texas: Oct 20-31 Utah: Oct 23-Nov 2 Vermont: Oct 6-Nov 3 West Virginia: Oct 15-Nov 1 Wisconsin: now-Nov 3 Wyoming: Sept 25-Nov 3