Predictions and Pulses

Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch.
Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!

--Benjamin Franklin

The NY Times weighs in this week with some interesting reports from battleground states:

COLORADO: The state's heavy emphasis on mail-in and early voting means that close to 1.5 million votes, or about 46 percent of the registered total, are already in the can, cast and waiting to be counted. That means two things. First, that a surge, or a misstep, at the last minute can only help or hurt so much, since voter decisions were in many cases made on conclusions reached in mid-to-late October. Second, it mandates, in a still-tight race, a pinpoint, surgical search for the votes still left.

FLORIDA: Emblematic of the challenge was the experience of two Republican canvassers who appeared at Beth Moriarty's door in Orlando Thursday looking for her husband's vote. Her response was blunt. Senator "Y'all are totally at the wrong house," Ms. Moriarty said. "My husband, he's 62, he has never voted for a Democrat in his entire life. Until Tuesday." Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, has a litany of structural advantages to help him. With only days to go, the Obama campaign has more of just about everything: offices (100 to Mr. McCain's 80); advertising money (outspending the McCain campaign four to one in some weeks); and voter registrations (a 660,000 Democratic edge over Republicans, up from 280,000 in 2006).

OHIO: Polls show Mr. Obama with a narrow lead , but even partisans put little stock in those. Hard experience has shown that Ohio tends to offer intense matches and bleary eyes while awaiting election-night returns. Heavily Republican counties line the western and central parts of the state, and Democrats dominate in Columbus, Dayton and Cleveland. But the electoral war is fought out in hazier confines like Chillicothe, a predominantly white city of 21,000 that mirrored the statewide results in the last two elections by going narrowly for President Bush.

PENNSYLVANIA: Senator John McCain has poured $20 million in advertisement purchases here, more than any other state by a long shot. (Still, he is swamped by Mr. Obama, who has spent $34 million here.) The candidate has come to the state more than 16 times since early June, and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, continues to stump here in the waning days of the campaign. But to go to Senator Barack Obama's headquarters in Center City is to see what Mr. McCain is up against. The office is jammed with more than 50 volunteers on computers and on the phones, preparing for an orchestrated get-out-the vote drive. Even a television crew from Indonesia was there to film it, adding to a palpable sense of excitement. By contrast, at a nearby McCain-Palin office, there was not a single volunteer, a reflection of how Mr. McCain is concentrating on drawing votes in more rural areas of Pennsylvania that gravitate toward Republicans.

VIRGINIA: A Democratic presidential candidate has not won Virginia since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. But the population trends and bluish political winds, especially in the northern region, have transformed Virginia into what Mayor L. Douglas Wilder of Richmond, who was the nation's first black governor, calls the New Dominion.

MISSOURI: Missouri has voted for the winner in every presidential election save one over the last century, and Mr. Obama seems to be fighting for every ballot in every county, including those areas normally hostile to a liberal Democrat. Senator John McCain has also been campaigning heavily here, as has his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, and polls show the race in Missouri tighter than anywhere in the nation.

NORTH CAROLINA: At a rally here with Michelle Obama the other day, little slips of paper were tucked into the windshields of cars in the parking lot. They announced a free breakfast, paid for by local Democrats, on behalf of Senator Barack Obama on Saturday, the last day of early voting. The fliers were a small reminder of something big — the Obama organization in this state. North Carolina has not seen a real presidential race for a generation. But in one of the biggest surprises of this long campaign season, Mr. Obama has pulled even in the polls with Senator John McCain.

GEORGIA: The campaign initially had Georgia on its wish list, but just two months ago, it went off the air here and moved out some of its paid staff members. Senator John McCain's campaign, meanwhile, treated Georgia as an automatic win. But then came the reports from early polling stations: people were waiting more than four hours in some places to cast their ballots, and 35 percent of them were black. By the time early voting closed on Friday, more than 1.7 million of Georgia's 5.6 million registered voters had cast their ballots, and many of them were in left-leaning urban counties in and around Atlanta, where support for Mr. Obama is at a fever pitch.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: So why should Mr. McCain bother returning to the state? "His theme of Obama meaning higher taxes really resonates here," Ms. Donahue said. "No matter what the polls say the week before the election, New Hampshire voters make their final decision in the last three days. McCain knows it, and that's why he's coming back." Democrats, too, think the race is closer than it seems. One of Mr. Obama's highest-profile surrogates, former President Bill Clinton, is to campaign here Sunday. And in a separate visit last week, Mrs. Clinton warned Democrats not to get complacent.

MONTANA: Senator Barack Obama has run an aggressive campaign here, spending about $160,000 a week on advertising and visiting the state five times during the campaign, including spending the Fourth of July in Butte. That kind of attention is unheard of. "He has a real shot," Pat Williams, a former longtime Democratic Congressman from Montana, said of Mr. Obama. "Part of it is his incessant traveling in Montana and the lack of a single footprint by McCain." But there is one unpredictable factor that may help decide the race: Ron Paul, the libertarian Texas congressman running on the Constitutional Party line here. Mr. Paul's supporters here asked if they could put his name on the ballot. He agreed, then changed his mind; but his request to be taken off the ballot came too late.

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Chuck Todd of MSNBC gave his predictions of what to expect in all 50 states, with hints about Senate and House races too. (You can also watch Chuck from today's Meet the Press, pointing out that even if McCain won EVERY SINGLE toss-up state today, he'd still lose the election.)

- Arizona: If McCain loses, he will have a tough reelection fight in 2010 again Janet Napolitano
- Arkansas: The only state with a Democratic governor and two senators McCain will win
- Connecticut: Watch Chris Shays in CT-04 defend the only House GOP seat in New England
- Florida: Many key House races here (FL-08, FL-16, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25)
- Georgia: Chambliss-Martin Senate race is a cliffhanger and might need a runoff
- Hawaii: If Obama wins, will the Western White House be in Honolulu? Reporters prefer it to Crawford
- Illinois: Will Obama's coattails be long enough to swing IL-10 and IL-11?
- Indiana: Could be close
- Maryland: Democrats might pick up another House seat making in 7 out of 8
- Michigan: McCain's decision to abandon the state may cause the GOP to lose MI-07 and MI-09
- Minnesota: The closest Senate race of the year is the Coleman-Franken-Barkley race here
- Mississippi: If black turnout surges, it might wash away Roger Wicker in the Senate race
- Missouri: The most Republican of the big swing states. If Obama wins this one it will be a landslide
- Montana: The demoralized GOP base might stay home and let Obama take these 3 EVs
- Nevada: The presidential race and two House seats are definitely in play here
- New Hampshire: The Democrats will probably win all the marbles here (again)
- New Mexico: The Democrats are likely to win presidential, Senate, and all three House races
- New York: Democrats might pick up four House seats and control of the state senate
- North Carolina: very close races for President, Senate, NC-08, and governor
- North Dakota: the psychological loss of North Dakota would be worse than the electoral loss
- Ohio: Obama and McCain are close; there are key House races in OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, and OH-16
- Oregon: Obama will crush McCain here and that might be enough to drag Jeff Merkley into the Senate
- Pennsylvania: probably not in play, but PA-11 and PA-12 might be close
- Virginia: Polls close at 7 P.M. EST here. If Obama wins, the show's over
- Wyoming: Believe it or not, the Democrats might win Cheney's old House seat